Published: April 26, 2008 07:13 pm            

MARK BENNETT: The Indiana Primary carries a interesting background into this

TERRE HAUTE — Indiana, a kingmaker.

The rest of America may shudder at the thought of that concept. Our electoral résumé offers little to ease outsiders’ fears about Hoosiers handling the job of deciding the 2008 Democratic nominee for president. Indeed, the Indiana primary packs a peculiar, undistinguished history.

That track record only adds to the drama surrounding this year’s primary.

Indiana may be the tipping point in the marathon campaign between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Both need to win here. Obama is expected to win North Carolina, the other May 6 primary. In Indiana, though, Obama holds a slight edge in public opinion polls. He could bolster his lead in delegates, votes and states won, and disprove doubts raised by Clinton about his electability by taking Indiana along with North Carolina. An Indiana victory for Clinton legitimizes her claims of being the Democrats’ best chance against Republican Sen. John McCain in November. A loss makes her continued candidacy look obsessive and divisive.

It would appear as though the Indiana winner will become the Democratic nominee. Obama calls Indiana a “tiebreaker.”

Judging by past performances, “curse-maker” might be more accurate.

The Obama-Clinton vote in Indiana is expected to be extremely close. On the few rare occasions when the Hoosier primary wasn’t a done-deal blowout, it produced a tight outcome. In each case, the victor did not become the party’s nominee.

In 1984, Gary Hart won Indiana by just 6,078 votes over Walter Mondale. Even after winning Indiana and Ohio on the same day, Hart still trailed Mondale in delegates. Yet the emboldened Hart insisted, “Democrats of this nation are not about to have this contest and this debate end at this time.” Apparently, they were. Mondale won the nomination, and then got routed by incumbent Ronald Reagan.

Reagan felt the other end of that political sword in the 1976 Indiana primary.

The former California governor was challenging incumbent Gerald Ford for the Republican nomination. Reagan took Indiana by 16,266 votes, with 323,779 total to Ford’s 307,513. In the last days before the primary, Reagan campaigned hard against big government and a weakening of the national defense. Ford was also hurt by Indiana’s 8.2-percent unemployment rate. On voting day, an estimated 200,000 Hoosiers who had supported segregationist Democrat George Wallace four years earlier abandoned Wallace’s flagging ’76 campaign and backed Reagan.

Afterward, the Reagan camp trumpeted the significance of its Indiana triumph. It was his first primary win north of the Mason-Dixon line. A Reagan campaign aide told United Press International, “There’s no way Ford can stop us now. The tide has turned for good.” (Sound familiar?)

Ford received the Republican nomination, and then got beat by Jimmy Carter in November.

The 1968 primary featured three Democrats — Bobby Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy and Indiana Gov. Roger Branigin. In that era, a state’s “favorite son” could run in its presidential primary, and then use any delegates won to play power-broker at the national convention. In ’68, incumbent Lyndon Johnson gave up intentions of seeking re-election, and it was presumed his vice president, Hubert Humphrey, would eventually enter the race. As Indiana’s primary approached, Branigin claimed neutrality, but many suspected his delegates would, at the convention, back Humphrey, who wasn’t on the Indiana ballot.

Kennedy won Indiana with 328,118 votes to Branigin’s 238,700 and McCarthy’s 209,695. McCarthy insisted most Hoosiers who voted for Branigin would’ve otherwise supported him. Afterward, McCarthy said that in “August, I’ll probably still be the frontrunner, as I am now.” Everything changed in June, when an assassin shot and killed Kennedy, who’d just won the California primary. Humphrey defeated McCarthy for the Democratic nomination, and then lost to Republican Richard Nixon in the fall.

The closest Indiana primary margin of victory came in 1920, when military hero Maj. Gen. Leonard Wood edged Sen. Hiram Johnson by 5,868 votes in the Republican race. Indiana’s fourth-place finisher, Warren G. Harding, became the GOP nominee and won the election. And in 1928, Herbert Hoover finished second to Indiana favorite son Sen. James E. Watson by 25,516 votes, but still got the GOP nomination and the presidency.

Given its record, maybe Clinton and Obama should pursue the Hoosier primary with a George Costanza strategy — seek the opposite of what you really want. A loss is a victory.

Hmmm … I may have just written the loser’s concession speech — “On to Kentucky and Oregon!”



Mark Bennett can be reached at mark.bennett@tribstar.com or (812) 231-4377.

        

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