Published: March 29, 2008 11:43 pm            

From the Press Box: Nostradamus is quaking in his boots, it’s baseball prediction time

TERRE HAUTE — Hey! Remember back in September when I picked the Chargers and Rams to meet in Super Bowl XLII? In print? For all of the Tribune-Star and Tribstar.com’s readers to see?

If you’re old school, this would be a good time to put a 45 of One Shining Moment on your record player, then abruptly turn it off and let the slowed-down audio wash over you as you chuckle at my expense.

Despite that rather public emasculation, I solider on, undaunted, despite the fact I should probably hoard as much daunt as I can get my hands on.

So roll over Nostradamus and tell The Amazing Criswell the news! It’s time to put my Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius-style soothsaying to work on the 2008 baseball season.

There’s no way I could be as full of fail as I was prognosticating the 2007 NFL season … but don’t sell me short. Forget tarot cards and crystal balls, I go with my increasingly sizable gut. What could ever go wrong with that?



National League

Central

1. Chicago Cubs — The fan in me absolutely hates every fiber of this prediction as I type it, but if I step away from my own biases (Milwaukee Brewers diehard, at your service) and look at it objectively, the Cubs have the fewest flaws of any team in a very flawed division. Solid starting rotation, good lineup, decent bullpen. Enough to win the Central, even if announced closer Kerry Wood doesn’t make it to May Day.

2. Milwaukee Brewers — Slugger Ryan Braun has moved to left field, so the clanking noise you heard at third base last season in Milwaukee will be conspicuously absent. With Braun, Prince Fielder, et al, the Brewers can hit with anyone, and their starting pitching is decent if healthy. The bullpen is a major question mark, though, and the leash will be tight for manager Ned Yost, who made one questionable decision after another during last September’s pennant race.

3. St. Louis Cardinals — I have no confidence in the Cardinals finishing third. None. But I have less confidence in any of the other teams in the division. The Cardinals have enough hitting to flirt with .500, nothing more.

4. Cincinnati Reds — I really like some of the Reds’ young hitters (Brandon Phillips in particular) and there won’t be a power outage, but as ever, the Reds’ pitching is suspect. Dusty Baker takes over as manager; insert your own joke Cubs fans.

5. Houston Astros — Many familiar faces (Craig Biggio, Brad Lidge) have shipped out, and closer Jose Valverde and shortstop Miguel Batista have shipped in. Hunter Pence is a stud, but the Astros have too many holes all around to contend.

6. Pittsburgh Pirates — Death, taxes, rebuilding in Pittsburgh. You can set your watch to it. Or if you’re a Pirates fan, a significant chunk of your adult life to it.

East

1. New York Mets — Everybody, and by everybody I mean the incessant drum beat of hype spewing forth from ESPN, is high on the Mets after they acquired pitching ace Johan Santana. The Mets are indeed good, not great, but good enough to win another weak NL division.

2. Philadelphia Phillies — The Phillies were NL East champions and beneficiaries of an epic Mets collapse last season. They’ll hang around again, if only because of their potent starting lineup. Pitching is more suspect, however, probably not enough to overcome the Mets.

3. Washington Nationals — I really like the way manager Manny Acta got a team many thought would be historically bad to 73 wins last year. The Nats don’t have the pitching to contend, but they play smart and will surprise some teams.

4. Atlanta Braves — The Braves rotation — which includes Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine and Mike Hampton — has some observers excited the Braves might return to form. But this isn’t 1999, and those arms have been around the block one too many times for my tastes. And with a weakened lineup, I don’t see a Braves revival.

5. Florida Marlins — The Marlins finally solved their ballpark saga — a new park will be built at the site of the Orange Bowl. Now if they could work on owner Jeffrey Loria’s frugality …

West

1. Arizona Diamondbacks — The Diamondbacks added starter Dan Haren from Oakland to a young team that won the NL West l ast year. This is a team that plays smart, gets production from its entire lineup, and can pitch. In other words, they’re the best team in the NL.

2. Colorado Rockies — Could a new rivalry be brewing? Colorado caught lightning-in-a-bottle last September and rode it all the way to the World Series. The solid Rockies will battle the Diamondbacks all summer, but ultimately, they will settle for the Wild Card as Arizona’s pitching is better.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers — Other than Andruw Jones, the Dodgers didn’t do much in the offseason to shake up its personnel. A solid team that would make more noise in one of the other NL divisions, but not in this one.

4. San Diego Padres — The Padres have good pitching, but they’re due for a fall. There’s no way a team with as little pop as they have can continually contend.

5. San Francisco Giants — Did I say the Padres had little pop? They’re Murderer’s Row compared to the Giants, who only have three players in their projected starting lineup who had double-digit home runs last year. The top of the rotation is solid. The rest is not.

American League

East

1. Boston Red Sox — The Red Sox have flaws and also have injury problems in their rotation. That said, they’re still the best team in the division. Are they the still the best in the AL? Signs point to no.

2. New York Yankees — There’s a lot of familiar names in the Yankees lineup. This is probably because many of the Yankees are closer to AARP eligibility than they are to the legal drinking age. If the Yankees stay healthy, they’re as good as the Red Sox, but will they? Combined with an iffy starting rotation, it doesn’t add up to a division crown.

3. Toronto Blue Jays — Blue Jays? With David Eckstein and Scott Rolen in tow, they might as well be the Toronto Cardinals. The Blue Jays’ pitching is good. If the hitting comes around, they might actually break the Red Sox-Yankees 1-2 logjam.

4. Tampa Bay Rays — You can take the Devil out of Rays, but you can’t take away the losing. They’ll be better, but when the Rays are moving from 66 wins to 75, do you really care?

5. Baltimore Orioles — I’m officially old. I can remember when the Orioles were a model franchise with a cruddy ballpark. Now they’re a laughing stock with a nice ballpark.

Central

1. Detroit Tigers — Comerica Park is a pitcher’s park. Can you imagine how many home runs the powerful Tigers would have hit at Tiger Stadium? Every starter, save Placido Polanco, hit at least 10 home runs last season … and Polanco hit .341. The Tigers might need the runs as their bullpen isn’t great, but they’ll get them.

2. Cleveland Indians — I don’t like the vibe in Cleveland. Ace C.C. Sabathia won’t talk to the Indians about a contract, and the angst from that, combined with the bad aftertaste of an ALCS collapse against the Red Sox last year might take a toll. Then again, the Indians have an impressive lineup, so they’ll be a factor.

3. Chicago White Sox — There’s no way the White Sox will lose 90 games again, will they? There’s no way they go to the World Series again either. Smells like .500 on the south side, unless Mark Buehrle and Javier Vazquez get hurt, then look out below.

4. Minnesota Twins — Smells like .500 in the northwoods too.

5. Kansas City Royals — The improving Royals won’t be far off the White Sox or the Twins, but they’re still too flawed to pick them ahead of anyone in this division.

West

1. Los Angeles Angels — Will the Angels get over the hump? They surprised everyone in 2002 with a World Series title, and by all rights, should have won more. They do everything well: they play smart, they have power, they’re decent in the field, they have a solid rotation and bullpen. Yet they’re the Indianapolis Colts of baseball: They do so many things right but rarely break through. My brain says to pick them to win it all, but until they prove otherwise and make a playoff run, I can’t.

2. Seattle Mariners — The addition of Eric Bedard to an already good rotation has many believing the Mariners can push the Angels. Perhaps. But why do I get this feeling that these Mariners’ starters (Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista) haven’t proven enough over the long haul, even though each has had individuals periods of brilliance? Perhaps I should be less worried about Seattle’s starters and more concerned with an average starting lineup. I’ll take a flier and give them the Wild Card, but I’ll prepare to be disappointed.

3. Oakland A’s — I did the research, I crunched the numbers … the A’s were the most boring franchise in baseball last summer. There was nothing distinctive about them, so when you take Dan Haren and Nick Swisher away, don’t lose any sleep about missing those West Coast games.

4. Texas Rangers — The Rolling Stones’ Tumbling Dice is my all-time favorite song and one of its most famous lines is, “I’m all sixes, and seven’s, and nine’s.” They weren’t singing about the ERA’s in the Rangers’ rotation, but they weren’t far off.

Playoffs

NLDS — Diamondbacks over the Cubs in 4; Rockies over the Mets in 5.

NLCS — Diamondbacks over the Rockies in 6.

ALDS — Tigers over the Mariners in 4; Angels over the Red Sox in 5.

ALCS — Tigers over the Angels in 7.

World Series — Tigers over the Diamondbacks in 7.

That’s that. I’m sure Nostradamus is quaking in his boots.



Todd Golden is sports editor of the Tribune-Star. He can be reached at (812) 231-4272 or todd.golden@tribstar.com.

        

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