Published: February 23, 2008 11:35 pm            

From the Press Box: Meaningful games? For ISU? Really?

TERRE HAUTE — It’s the last week of the regular season in the Missouri Valley Conference … Indiana State’s men’s basketball team has meaningful games to play.

Soooo … how does this work exactly?

I’m confused. My modus operandi in my three previous seasons for the last week has been to check and make sure my Wednesday/ Thursday Missouri Valley Conference Tournament hotel reservation was set in St. Louis and also to make sure I was OK money-wise if I had to bolt by Friday.

I had to pray to the God I believe in that ISU didn’t draw the 9:30 p.m. play-in game (reporters need a patron saint of deadlines). The prayers worked in year one and two, but not last year.

Most of all, I had to constantly obsess over the job status of the head coach.

I still have to find a saint to pray to for the deadline thing, but aside from that, the world of ISU basketball has changed dramatically in one year’s time.

ISU has put itself in a position it hasn’t enjoyed since the 2001 season. The Sycamores currently control their own destiny as far as avoiding the Thursday (once Friday) play-in round of the MVC Tournament. ISU has a one-game edge on Northern Iowa for sixth place, the last safe position in the Valley to avoid the play-in round.

ISU plays at Northern Iowa on Wednesday. If the Sycamores win, it’s all over as far as Thursday is concerned. ISU will have a two-game edge on UNI with one to play for sixth place.

Even if ISU loses — and given its 1-12 road record as of this writing (I wrote this before the Murray State game) — it’s certainly a possibility unless ISU gets its road act in gear. The Sycamores should still have the tiebreaker edge over the Panthers going into the final game of the season.

The Valley uses what it calls a Power Rating System to break ties between teams who split during the regular season (ISU beat UNI 74-56 on Jan. 5 at Hulman Center), and even if ISU loses to UNI on Wednesday, and all Valley teams remain as they are, ISU would still have a 77-70 edge. Since ISU has beaten every team in the Valley UNI has, save Missouri State, position changes in the conference won’t affect the Sycamores’ point total.

UNI could not overcome its point deficit as the Panthers close at Evansville, and since Evansville will be no higher than ninth in the standings, four points is the best the Panthers could hope for if they won at Roberts Stadium. So if ISU beats Missouri State at Hulman Center on Saturday in the regular season finale, it would still get sixth in a tiebreaker. A UNI loss to the Purple Aces would also clinch sixth for the Sycamores if …

… Missouri State loses to Drake in Springfield on Tuesday.

If ISU loses to UNI on Wednesday, Missouri State is back in the picture. Missouri State is two games behind the Sycamores at present, but a win over the Bulldogs at Hammons Student Center would give the Bears hope. If Missouri State beats ISU at Hulman Center on Saturday, the Bears would have the tiebreaker edge on the Sycamores with a season series sweep.

All of this presumes my math is right, which is a laugh.

Those are all the glass half-empty scenarios, and after all, I’ve been trained by force of habit to think “half-empty” since I’ve been here. Here’s the “half-full” blow-by-blow.

If ISU beats UNI on Wednesday, it keeps itself in the mix for a higher spot. Oddly, the four teams ahead of ISU (Creighton, Bradley, Southern Illinois, Illinois State) all play each other in their final two games.

The mathematical possibilities are endless, so let’s map out the best-case scenario for the Sycamores.

ISU needs Bradley to beat Southern Illinois in Peoria on Tuesday and Illinois State to win at Normal against Creighton on Wednesday. That scenario puts SIU and Bradley at 10-7 and Creighton and ISU at 9-8 going into the final game of the season.

On the final day, ISU would need to beat Missouri State, Creighton would have to win in Omaha against Bradley and Illinois State would have at Carbondale over Southern Illinois (the weak link in this best-case scenario).

That would create a four-way tie for third place. Multiple-team ties in the Valley are determined by a round-robin system first, but all of the teams would be 3-3 against each other.

So it goes to the Power Ratings System again. In that scenario, Bradley earns 106, ISU 93, Southern Illinois 90, Creighton 81 — ISU finishes fourth in the best-case scenario … but gets to play No. 5 SIU.

Has your head exploded yet? I think mine just did crunching all the numbers.

It’s all crazy to think about — ISU could be as high as fourth or as low as eighth if there’s a three-way tie with UNI and Missouri State at regular season’s end, because ISU would lose out on a three-way round-robin tiebreaker with those teams.

I suppose it’s just easy to make this simple — ISU’s game at Northern Iowa is its Super Bowl. It’s the biggest regular season game since 2001. And if it loses, it’s home finale against Missouri State is even bigger. Everything you need to know about how ISU’s season will be remembered takes place this week.

Count it as a sign of progress that coach Kevin McKenna has the Sycamores in this position in his first year.

Todd Golden is sports editor of the Tribune-Star. He can be reached at (812) 231-4272 or todd.golden@tribstar.com.

        

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